Three weeks in to Epic Fury, We’re running out of Ammo. Even $1.5T can’t fix that overnight.
3/20/2026
Iran by the numbers
The conflict in the Middle East is difficult to track. Traditional daily battle damage reports are not posted by the Pentagon, and there are no daily press briefings. There are posts from the White House and administration officials on social media but they are informal. This is different from every previous armed incursion into a sovereign nation of this scale in modern history. American taxpayers deserve unclassified information about their military. We are having to hunt for it.
It has been unclear what the desired end state of the White House is. Director of National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard testified before Congress on March 18 and 19 along with other senior intelligence officials. Gabbard’s main points offered some insight into the administration’s position. First, she stated that only the President can determine what poses an “imminent” threat to the United States. One wonders why we have a globally superior national intelligence community, then.
After that startling statement, Gabbard went on to state that Israel’s goals and the United States’ goals are not the same in Iran. She said that Israel wishes to eliminate Iran’s leadership structure, while the U.S. wishes to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capability, ballistic missile production infrastructure, navy, and mine laying capability.
And with that, it appears we have a mission. How long will it last?
120 Iranian naval ships have been destroyed, including its entire submarine fleet. Attacks have also targeted its Caspian Sea Fleet which is a key oil and gas delivery channel.
Yet, Iran maintains control of the Strait of Hormuz as of this writing, even offering tankers from certain nations, including China, India, Pakistan and Malaysia, safe escorted passage through the Strait.
Late this week USS Boxer with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) was ordered from San Diego to the Persian Gulf; it should arrive in early April. Earlier this week, 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU onboard USS Tripoli arrived on station to conduct Visit, Board, Search, and Seizure (VBSS) boardings on vessels suspected to be carrying mines or drones.
USMC Fleet Antiterrorism Security Teams (FAST) have been dispatched to Amman, Baghdad, and Kuwait City to reinforce American embassies there, and Marines are being used for port defense in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, MV-22 Ospreys launched from the Tripoli are able to conduct rapid “in-and-out” raids to destroy mobile missile launchers and other Iranian ballistic infrastructure.
It is likely that the nearly 5,000 Marines from the 11th and 31st MEUs will be used to neutralize Iranian islands in the Strait of Hormuz, including Kharg Island, a key production and logistics port for the Iranian oil industry, to help open the corridor back up for tanker traffic.
It is reported by the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) that Iranian ballistic missile launches and one-way drone strikes have dropped by 90% since February 28. 190 ballistic missile launchers are confirmed destroyed. Causalities are estimated at 6,000 Iranian combatants killed and 15,000 wounded.
The effort has extended to Iran’s military industrial base. The Pentagon reports that the manufacturing hubs for Shahed-class drones and Fateh-class missiles have been destroyed, preventing the regime from rebuilding combat capability.
This success has come at significant cost to U.S. munitions stocks. Missiles have become the weapon of choice for accuracy, impact, and minimizing risk of American causalities. Missiles are also expensive and replenishment is impacted by budget irregularities, government shutdowns, deliveries to foreign buyers and other constraints.
From the campaign against the Houthis in early 2025, to the “12-day war” against Iran in June 2025, to the current massive onslaught against Iran that began Feb. 28, the U.S. has expended nearly 20,000 missiles, interceptors, smart bombs and bunker busters.
The U.S. has fired more Tomahawk missiles in the last year – more than 400 - than it typically buys in three to five years (as low as 18-57 missiles per year in recent budget years). Patriot interceptor missile stocks were depleted 75% before Operation Epic Fury began. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor missiles, which are stationed around the world as a primary missile defense system, were depleted 30% globally before Feb. 28.
Major industrial producers like RTX and Lockheed Martin, who manufacture Tomahawks and THAAD, have agreed to quadruple production. However, this may take 12-24 months to be fully realized.
There is a notable absence in the Persian Gulf this March: minesweeping ships. The last minesweeper in the region was decommissioned in Sept. 2025. The Navy has replaced minesweepers, which employed Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD) divers to physically disarm and clear mines, with Mine Countermeasures (MCM) capability deployed on Littoral Combat Ships (LCS) and via the Tripoli Amphibious Strike Group (ARG), soon to be joined by the Boxer ARG. These capabilities are delivered via the Common Unmanned Surface Vehicle (CUSV) and the MH-60 Seahawk helicopter – all remotely.
Minehunting is always slow and tedious work and mines are cheap. While it is a good thing to no longer clear mines with humans, the MCM package as currently deployed has some limitations. Of great concern is the poor sonar on the CUSV which is quite simply not up to the task of locating mines. The Seahawk is equipped with the ability to scan the water with lasers and sonars, then to deploy fiber-optic-guided “destructors” to swim to the mine and destroy it when positively identified by video. In turgid (cloudy) waters, the Seahawk’s capability is diminished.
U.S. military technology is without match. It is also expensive. The least expensive of the munitions expended – the JDAM/SDB category of “smart bombs” run from $25,000 to $100,000 a shot. After firing more than 10,000 of them, we have a bill for more than a billion dollars. In the campaign against the Houthis a year ago, the Navy used multi-million-dollar SM-6 and SM-2 interceptors against $20,000 drones.
Tomahawks are $3.5 million a shot. THAAD interceptors, $15.5 million. All told, the first 96 hours of Operation Epic Fury are estimated to have cost between $10 billion and $16 billion. Three weeks in, with far fewer strikes, daily costs are running about $500 million.
The Pentagon has requested a budget supplement of $200 billion – over the White House fiscal year request of $1.5 trillion – to fund this war. The Federal debt, which the President pledged to erase in 2016, has instead doubled, reaching $39 trillion this month. It’s easy to see Social Security and Medicare funds going dry even faster between munitions replenishment and debt service.
Stay healthy, dear readers.
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican for 36 years, she became an independent upon reading the 2024 Republican platform. She lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and one of cat. She can be reached at news.ind.merritt@gmail.com.